Rajendra Singh Rathore Is Confident That Bharatiya Janata Party Will Win More Than 135 Seats In Rajasthan

In the lead-up to the impending elections in Rajasthan, a significant number of dissident candidates from both the Congress and BJP have chosen to run as independents, signaling a triangular contest for nearly 30 seats. The Congress party is closely monitoring its official candidates as around twenty dissidents pose a substantial threat to their electoral prospects, while the BJP faces a similar situation with approximately 10 dissidents seeking public office.

Political observers emphasize the critical threshold that, if unmet, may lead the rebels to play an increasingly influential role in the state’s affairs. Current statistics indicate a fierce struggle for these contested seats, raising concerns about the potential impact on the state’s governance.

Leadership positions in the state have predominantly been held by members of the BJP and Congress, with the latter facing challenges in making a significant impact. Notably, the Congress appears to have done little to support rebels and independents, contrasting with the efforts made by Ashok Gehlot in 2018 when he reached out to dissidents and set up resorts to protect them.

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The current focus for both the Congress and BJP is on dissident and independent candidates who wield significant influence and could sway the election in their respective seats. This strategy mirrors the approach taken in the last two elections, where courting independents played a crucial role in determining the chief minister.

In the 2018 elections, Ashok Gehlot secured the chief minister position by winning the backing of independents, solidifying the Congress cabinet structure. Rebels played a pivotal role by capturing 39 seats with margins exceeding 1000 votes, creating a political stir. Out of twenty-two contested seats, thirteen rebels emerged victorious, while in the closely contested 29 seats, the Congress won nine, the BJP thirteen, and others and independents secured four and three seats, respectively. Furthermore, nine seats were at risk of elimination due to slim victory margins.

Notable rebels to watch in this election include Chettorgarh assemblyman Chandrabhan Aakhya, Didwana chief Yunus Khan, Banshidhar Bajiya, Jeevaram Chaudhary, Ravindra Singh Bhati, Jaswant Singh Gurjar, marble merchant Suresh Tak of Kishangarh, and Jhotwara chief Ashu Singh Surpura. Additionally, attention should be given to figures like Jaswant Singh Gurjar, a former speaker of the Bari assembly who switched parties, and Ravindra Singh Bhati, a former speaker of the Sheo assembly. Other individuals of interest include Alok Beniwal, Om Vishnoi, Fateh Khan, Srigopal Baheti, Sunil Parihar, Wajid Khan, Habibbur Rahman, Khiladi Lal Bairava, Dilip Chaudhary, and Kanhaiya Lal Jhanwar.

Intriguingly, the renowned Rajasthani bookmaker Phalodi satta bazaar has unveiled a formula predicting post-vote gain or loss and forecasts a BJP victory in the state. Veteran bookmakers project the BJP to secure 112–124 seats, while the Congress is expected to garner 62–65 seats in the 2023 elections. The accuracy of Phalodi bettors’ predictions, evidenced by their correct projection of the Congress victory in Karnataka, adds an interesting dimension to the unfolding political scenario in Rajasthan. The Phalodi betting market’s knack for accurate predictions during national and state elections continues to attract attention and speculation.