Did the outcomes of the Assembly elections signify an endorsement of ‘Modi ki Guarantee’?

In five states, the assembly polls did not serve as a definitive precursor to the 2024 general elections. Nevertheless, the results, showcasing the BJP’s triumph in three states, underscore the enduring trust in ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ and the sustained charisma of Modi.

It may be an exaggeration to claim that the outcome of the five state assembly elections will predetermine the victor in the 2024 general elections. However, it is essential to acknowledge Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pivotal role in these elections, where the BJP managed to overturn anti-incumbency sentiments, securing victory in two states previously held by the Congress and maintaining its stronghold in one.

Voters in India often exhibit distinct behaviors in state assembly and general parliamentary elections, with the electoral process intricately influenced by regional and national dynamics. The 2015 assembly elections exemplify this, where the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) emerged as the largest party in Bihar but could only secure one seat out of 40 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections despite winning 81 assembly seats.

After the impressive performance of the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared at the party headquarters that the current hat-trick was indicative of a forthcoming 2024 hat-trick. However, caution must be exercised in drawing conclusions about how the three states voting for the BJP government will sway in the general elections.

Nonetheless, it is evident that the enchantment of Modi remains potent, as reflected in the outcomes in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.

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‘MODI KI GUARANTEE’: MAGIC OR NOT?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with other senior BJP leaders, extensively campaigned in all three states, securing victory without projecting a chief ministerial face. In states where strong leadership is lacking, the BJP has traditionally refrained from nominating a chief ministerial candidate.

It is noteworthy that despite having Vasundhara Raje and Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, respectively, the BJP focused its campaign on Modi’s guarantee rather than naming a chief ministerial face.

Prominent BJP figures attributed the party’s success in the three states to PM Modi on social media. Vasundhara Raje, leader of the Rajasthan BJP and a formidable chief ministerial candidate, attributed the victory to people’s confidence in Modi’s promises. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated that the results demonstrate faith in #ModiKiGuarantee, and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma emphasized that only “Modi ki Guarantee” is a valid assurance in India.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, also credited PM Modi’s leadership for the BJP’s victory in the state.

BJP’s Focus on Women Electorates

The BJP’s success appears to stem from a combination of Modi’s appeal and other factors, such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s ‘Ladli Behna’ initiative. Additionally, the party’s strategy, emphasizing female voters, seems to have paid off, with 46% of women reportedly voting for the BJP and its allies, according to exit poll data that accurately predicted the results.

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Post-poll surveys indicate that the BJP received more votes from women than men in the 2022 assembly elections, held in four of the five states it gained, including Uttar Pradesh.

The opposition’s attempt, led by the Congress, to amplify the demand for a caste census across the country appears to have faltered. The only effective strategy for the Congress, eventually adopted by the BJP, was the promise of incentives, as the BJP shifted its stance from dismissing poll sops as “revdis.”