What does it mean for Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli’s future in the format when they are absent from T20Is once again?

As of the time of writing, the outcome of the 2023 elections for the five state assemblies is poised to be revealed within the next 24 hours. The destiny of various political parties is encapsulated within the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), akin to a predetermined result in contrast to the unpredictability of the 2023 World Cup cricket match. The scorecard, however, remains undisclosed.

Traditionally, exit polls offer a reliable glimpse into the general trend, be it a wave, breeze, tsunami, or something entirely different. Nonetheless, in this instance, exit polls from various sources suggest a closely contested battle between the BJP and the Congress, with anticipated vote shares within one or two percentage points of each other. Even in typically accurate states like Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, close races are indicated, adding to the complexity of the situation.

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Interestingly, an exit poll by India Today-Axis My India contradicts findings from other agencies, projecting a clear win for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. This disparity in exit poll results has contributed to confusion rather than offering clarity.

Mizoram stands out as a state where neither the Congress nor the BJP is predicted to win, with a local party called ZPM emerging as the anticipated victor. This leaves four states with ambiguous outcomes, awaiting resolution on Sunday.

The results of these elections hold significant intrigue as they stand to impact the newly formed alliance known as India. Three general scenarios for four states (excluding Mizoram) are outlined:

Congress Dominance (4-0 or 3-1): If the Congress secures a decisive victory in all or most states, especially following successes in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, it will be perceived as a formidable force capable of challenging and defeating the BJP in multiple states. Rahul Gandhi’s increased prominence will likely energize the Congress. However, this success may pose challenges for the India alliance, as the Congress seeks to consolidate power, potentially creating tensions within the coalition.
Even Split (2-2): If the BJP wins any two of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, and the Congress secures victories in two states, including a significant one like Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan, the score will be tied at 2-2. Both the Congress and the BJP would claim victory, signaling a political deadlock. Despite the Congress winning some elections, it may not be sufficient to overpower the BJP on its own. Such an outcome would be viewed as a setback for the Congress and the India alliance, potentially casting doubt on their prospects in the 2024 elections.
BJP Dominance (3-1 with BJP winning all three major states): If the BJP secures victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, even if the Congress wins Telangana, it would be deemed a significant defeat for the Congress and a major triumph for the BJP. This scenario might lead to assertions that the Congress has limited chances in the 2024 elections and that the India alliance has faltered.

The non-Congress partners in the INDIA alliance are ideally hoping for an equilibrium—a 2-2 outcome for the Congress. A 4-0 result seems unlikely, and both the BJP and the Congress are striving for a substantial victory, with a 3-1 outcome being the most optimistic scenario. As voters and viewers, the anticipation for Sunday’s results rivals the nail-biting moments of a cricket World Cup match.