The potential implications, especially economic, of China’s shrinking population and India’s surging ahead, are huge. But the first question to ask is: what has been behind these shifts? There are two primary drivers of population change.
China’s population, according to its National Bureau of Statistics, fell to 1,411.8 million in 2022, from 1,412.6 million in the previous year. An absolute decline in population is a landmark event, for a country that is soon set to be surpassed — if it has not already — by India as home to the most number of people.
India has not conducted an official headcount Census after 2011. But going by the United Nations’ projections, its population stood at 1,417.2 million in 2022 (more than China’s) and is expected to reach 1,428.6 million in 2023.
In a historic demographic shift, China’s population has declined for the first time in 60 years. According to the latest population data released by China’s government, the world’s most populous nation saw its population shrink by 850,000 people. Mint breaks down the implications of this change: